q, onda con bush, why
Porcentajes a favor de kerry?
Gays: Kerry 77, Bush 23.
Judíos: Kerry 74, Bush 25.
Igual, mayoría de votos por kerry en los negros (90%)
Ligera mayoría en los jóvenes.
más estadísticas en el blog de andrewsullivan.com, un conservador que se volteó (ejem) a la mera hora al lado de Kerry
HOW THE VOTE MOVED: Kerry won the center and the left. Over to Noam:
Not only did Kerry win by an 86-13 margin among self-described liberals, he also won by a 55-45 margin among self-described moderates. So how'd Bush pull it off? He won 84-15 among self-described conservatives, and, more importantly, he made sure conservatives comprised a much bigger chunk of the electorate than they did in 2000. (Conservatives comprised about 34 percent of the electorate yesterday, versus 29 percent in 2000 -- a huge shift, raw numbers-wise.) Anyone anticipating a conciliatory second Bush term should stop and consider how much Bush owes his base.
There you have the Rove strategy in a nutshell. If the ideological demographics had stayed the same as they had been in 2000, Kerry might have won. Two other small points: all those predictions of gay marriage moving African-Americans toward the Republicans didn't pan out. All those predictions of the youth vote going for Kerry did pan out - but they were trounced by seniors shifting to Bush (I think the gay issue mattered there as well). The GOP's weak spot is that they aren't winning over the young; and that they won't have gays to kick around for ever. I notice that in California and Massachusetts, marriage equality candidates all won big. The polarization continues. Let federalism work.
- 5:19:57 PM
como bienvenida para sullivan tras la segunda victoria de bush, le llegó un mail:
"I wonder if you noticed that yesterday all eleven states that considered the question of gay marriage voted to ban it. ALL ELEVEN. I think this sends a very clear message -- true Americans do not like your kind of homosexual deviants in our country, and we will not tolerate your radical pro-gay agenda trying to force our children to adopt your homosexual lifestyle. You should be EXTREMELY GRATEFUL that we even let you write a very public and influential blog, instead of suppressing your treasonous views (as I would prefer). But I'm sure someone like yourself would consider me just an "extremist" that you don't need to worry about. Well you are wrong -- I'm not just an extremist, I am a real American, and you should be worried because eleven states yesterday proved that there are millions more just like me who will not let you impose your radical agenda on our country."
Ups
Franz Ferdinand
Debí haberlo gastado en unos chicharrones.
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